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The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Aussie side celebrate a greater number of birthdays than Timezone in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Ageing Team Interest Builds

For two or three years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and especially the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player near a Test team being over 30, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the beginning of an away Ashes series | a former player

Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Change Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on backing up. Any side knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a process that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that had not steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a short period. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the balance experiences a far greater change with two players missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Test matches entering the attack after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the ground on a banana lounge and still be anxious.

Register to The Spin

Who knows, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how rapidly Australia have transitioned from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how tricky stress injuries can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of getting injured early in series and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the contest may see the main four bowlers reunited and all going well. Or it might experience transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with choices uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change approaching, rolling round the corner, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they don’t know when.