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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing crisis, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.